March 7, 2008, global manufacturing power influence. However, since 2005, brought about by a series of foreign exchange reserves soared problems forced us to re-valuation of the yuan currency. However, if the domestic low-end labor market status is not excessive competition change, companies can easily to control costs by driving down wages, which will pass on the consequences of revaluation of human capital and skills that workers with lower. More seriously,UGG shoes, if China's current rise in asset prices in the international hot money role in fueling, then, once the significant appreciation of the renminbi actually, but one step to the appreciation, then, waiting for China's large-scale international hot money will likely be pulled out, while the domestic asset prices, wealth swept away by the international hot money, This will cause enormous loss of wealth in China!
Unfortunately, the lack of conclusive data,cheap UGG boots, we still have no way to know whether the current account surplus in the international hot money is actually much more. It was observed that while exporters may overstated the value of exported goods, on the one hand the high value of reported domestic procurement and rebates given to domestic suppliers accordingly, so that you can use the trade name for the international hot money into China to provide a channel. In appreciation of the renminbi is expected under the hot money into China after assets will be invested in areas of asset prices. Although no data confirm this fact, but this may partly explain why some phenomena occurring in the field of foreign trade in 2004 after a economic factors change, then the changes in the field of foreign trade is more likely to occur gradually.
a lot of people believe that China's macroeconomic difficulties facing today and the eighties of last century, Japan is very similar, the same trade surplus The same pressure of currency appreciation, the same asset bubbles. has made a lot of people, today's China and Japan in those years the international environment has been very different. However, two different judgments of people who rarely noticed, today's China and then Japan has a significant in at least two different, but in my opinion,Bailey UGG boots, these two structural features are related with China.
one hand, Japan has always an economy led by domestic demand, from the century since the sixties, its dependence on foreign trade has been 14% to 25%, even at the highest dependence on foreign trade of 1980 to 1982, and no more than 25%. Of course, Japan's economic structure and services industry based on Japan's tertiary industry in GDP, the mid-six had more than 50%, the highest dependence on foreign trade in 1980 to 1982, the proportion of GDP, the tertiary industry 58.7% to 59.5 %. On the other hand, the income gap in Japan has long been a small country, the Gini coefficient slightly higher than 0.3. In contrast, China is a very high dependence on foreign trade, the income gap between the vast country. other words words, narrow the income gap between Japan and the start of domestic demand in these two areas is not much room to maneuver, while China has a lot of space through internal restructuring, narrow the income gap, start domestic demand. in other words, the internal facing China today structure but to alleviate external imbalances imbalance provides an additional opportunity.
In fact, high foreign exchange reserves caused by the series of macroeconomic imbalances and the value of the renminbi undervalued in addition to related, but also with China's labor costs, environmental costs and resource products For the price is too low. from labor costs, China in 2004, more than ten years ago,UGG boots clearance, almost no increase in workers wages, this is a highly competitive market with migrant workers, lack of social security. And after 1996, the urban sector labor market accelerate reform, and labor costs have put downward pressure. in open conditions, low labor costs become a source of comparative advantage, through the development of processing trade, China's rapidly becoming the new manufacturing powerhouse. However, the labor market is accompanied by excessive competition, China's income gap continued to widen, between urban and rural residents, urban residents within and outside the income gap between residents are continuing to expand, workers in the whole share of social income declining. And enterprises are too dependent on low labor costs, lack of competitiveness through innovation to improve power.
Therefore, the nominal exchange rate appreciation in addition to other appropriate, to resolve the current macro-economic face of China difficulties, we must adjust the source in China's internal institutional framework, to gradually increase the processing industry, labor wages, prices and environmental costs of resource consumption. through the social security system to protect labor rights, and gradually raise labor costs, changes in China too dependent on low labor costs, the status quo. it can be said, in effect just this year, negative impact, but it is conducive to resolving the plight of China's macro is conducive to long-term economic development. I like to judge based on: first, by narrowing the income gap, improving the social security system, and expand domestic demand, is conducive to China's economic growth will be from the more resources into education and health aspects of human capital investment, lay the foundation for sustainable development, thus economic growth mode from
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