Elaborate on how to read the tape won the football skills to come up with

 Elaborate on how to read the tape won the football skills to use to look up
first statement was purely personal point of view, there is no authority. Just want to offer and I won the football-loving friends as a little reference. More welcome put forward different ideas, and discussion.
because the Football Lottery, it also saw Australian plate and the European plate for two years, to date, experience is reading the tape can not buy a football lottery, but it must not just look Handicap do not look at the team. Why do you say? first give a simple example:
first Liverpool VS Manchester City 2.05 a ball / Qiuban 1.85
second Arsenal VS Newcastle 2.05 a ball / Qiuban 1.85
that two of the Handicap is the same, if you look Handicap, then there is no difference, but that the gambling company that has a ball home team the advantage. But let us look at the corresponding team, we will found that the strength of the gap between the different teams. is easy to see, how can the first Liverpool Rangyi Qiu / Qiuban it? while the second becomes more normal. This is my first note:
a . the strength difference between disk and disk confused.
power plate, by definition, full strength as the basis for the two sides out of Handicap. In the Handicap, the lower plate on the plate should tend to balance the amount of bets, the dealer can the collection of water close to risk-free money. strengths are the makers of the game disc the results are often not made in the affirmative. such as the second example above, the dealer that the home team has a ball / Qiuban advantage, which is consistent with the idea and players The. bookmakers to bet only the balance.
confuse disk, because the bookmakers for the match results have been tendentious, in order to make their own profit maximization, so traders to make bets not balanced, that is, using odds allow punters to invest in to lose one disk. such as the above example, the first game, Liverpool from common sense, can not make Manchester City a ball / Qiuban, and half a more normal low water, a ball have been some high water open big. then the odds are not the strength to drive, but to confuse an offer.
we know the strength disk drive and confused after some differences, then how do we distinguish between them at the time to read the tape? I think, first, we Do not look at Chupan, look against, and then imagine if they are master manipulators, how would set the odds to make bets balance. look at the odds and his own imagination there is no difference, to determine a strength of the disk drive or confuse . if they think this way trouble, then there is a simple method is to see the Handicap, the assumption that they are to bet, will be betting on the plate or lower plate. If you hesitate to choose, and that in the Handicap Your grasp of winning a large following, then the disk have a problem. Instead, you hesitate and think that it is betting on a plate or lower plate, are not sure, then this is the basic strength of the plate. of course, are based on your for the team and is not familiar with the personal sense of color *** judgments.
cite a more recent example, of Park Heights Newcastle That spear Adams, Newcastle Rangyi Qiu, I believe many of my friends like me, that 3 is a Wendan candidate, if betting on the Australian disc will offer a firm choice. to Friday when we see the message that this ball is very large bets, while the odds did not change, remain in a ball. This a bit strange, let's think about the mentality of most people, should one of us, is the possibility that the Newcastle win very large. So, the next in the betting odds of a ball on the plate, would not take away hope win? imagine, betting on the most toward the plate. Well, according to common sense, gambling company in order to balance the bets should have rose plate, making the difference between the upper and lower plate, the betting is not fishes, but the disk has not changed. So does that mean? Help not afraid of you bet on a dealer plate, he is betting on your plate! This is the so-called hot die, how hot is out, completely Handicap Trader result set. This is somewhat similar to the European Cup Handicap That France, Greece, and later France was draw. We can now analyze, making this ball that is basically impossible to Newcastle two goals to win. He set the odds, go up to disk, or if the draw with Newcastle was lose, he will earn big. of course, possible to identify the dealer will be a draw, but I personally think that if the company has spotted a result of gambling, there is indeed a great chance, but definitely not completely sure . He is also in the gambling, except that he won the grasp of the very large. but we are making to see the true intentions in order to make judgments on the results of the competition.
II. observe the changes in Handicap.
Sohu's Football Lottery Center today to see one on the This week is no exception, and the company on Wednesday won the football-related games on several odds and made adjustments. the first to be playit.com adjusted odds that Southampton game at home against Charlton. 2.30-3.10-2.55 is playit.com out the odds on Monday, followed shortly thereafter adjusted to 2.25-3.10-3.00, which reduce the odds of primary wins, customer wins were to increase the odds that the change that In playit.com seems Southampton may very
taking all 3 points at home. The trader can not go home with a baby to work. Here are a few paragraphs, like this period, that is, win lose if reduced, will be out on behalf of gambling companies that win, lose high level, do not think the level . If that is so simple, we rely on gambling to read the tape that day to count the money in the home good.
Handicap changes, there is a possibility because there is not balanced betting and gambling company in order to reduce risk So change the odds, so betting tends to equilibrium. gambling company called gambling, in fact, he is to make you another gambling, money the company steady drift of his own in no particular grasp is reluctant to engage in gambling before. such as above, the a judge is simply retarded. this game as I read the tape of the opinion that gambling companies are not sure, because out of the Handicap reasonable. midweek betting that some change is because the disk is not balanced, the home team has the appropriate Christmas advantage, so relatively more bets win, less negative. In order to reduce risk, lower win compensation, raising the negative compensation, to attract investors bet the negative, to achieve a balanced betting. This power panel, to tell our information only and the odds of the outcome of the corresponding level possible, which is the inverse of the odds.
another example, the last issue of VS Chievo Fiorentina this ball, the home team so that the hemisphere has not changed, but the water level from 1.8 to 2.0 . The standard set win compensation rose to 1.95 from 1.8, while the negative lose big decline, from 4.5 to 3.9. in accordance with the above theory of the mentally handicapped, it is not possible smaller home team win, but may be a lot of the visiting team to win? and the result in practice is the home team won the game 2-0. In fact, this is a standard strength Handicap disk, you were into me, you will bet on a plate or lower plate? I will be very difficult. also That is, making no clear attitude, he has to do is balance the betting on it. water level elevation and win pay increases, the goal is to balance the betting. Just imagine the results if the makers know that this ball is 2: 0, why should he go to the home team to raise the water level so that they are a little more money Peifu it more worthwhile to win higher pay. like in a little more, if the dealer pre-determine the results of the competition, then I am afraid of this ball Handicap will become confused disk, traders will set the trap so that the next Handicap hot plate.
the strength of the disc, such as Florida against Chievo this ball, hemisphere Handicap tell you that the information is only making the probability of winning on the plate together with the probability of negative about peace. only so far.
observed variables have no disk to analyze the situation Handicap exchange, which is the strength of the disk drive into a confused, confused disk drive into a strength. also cited a recent example, the football Juventus VSAC Milan, Juventus Chupan out is to Pingban. the odds a bit confused, why? First, if I come to open, will open a tie Juve low water; s Second, if I were punters, this Pingban Handicap I will go under the plate. grounds, A. According to the strength analysis, Juventus and Milan matched, although Juventus have home advantage, they can only reflected in the water, and not to be the point where the ball; B. has been in the league leader Juventus, Milan, if the clinch, not enough suspense title, it will affect the entire league attractive level. These are the ordinary punters as a point of view to make the analysis, then, If the same majority and this point of view, the lower plate will be hot. based on the judge, on a disk that is You Wensheng, it should be our first choice for betting. but soon becomes Australian plate hand plate for You Wenping low water, from Handicap disk into a normal spell. So, our analysis must begin again. Although it is only from the Pingban into a tie of low water, but obviously, the upper and lower plate, the betting will be more balanced. This change disc tells us that Makers do not know on what grounds, in the week that the victory of hope Juve great, but once they deny their own views, will be fooled into a tie disk drive. Please note that this does not deny You Wensheng a negative, but negative You Wensheng had originally thought possible a larger, but not sure the results change. If you can deny You Wensheng out, and change drive to Milan to Pingban well, even with high water tie Juve, Juve will be hot.
For the confused disk, which is relatively simple examples, there are a variety of induced plate trap. In short, confused disk, which is to analysis to determine the betting will be hot, the opposite. but we must remember , the dealer will make mistakes, but with fewer errors.
III. not to believe what the law of odds.
now common to see, when a group of odds out, the analysis of newspapers and websites often come before the data from the same odds, Sohu is just like the same odds of a SSP. I personally think this idea is a relatively mentally handicapped, if the odds to have the law, that is, before the odds of winning , now also a victory, then I Again, the company's traders are gambling can be dismissed early.
in the strength of the Handicap, set the betting odds are based on balance, I think this is an absolute truth. Trader done, just trying to set a more reasonable odds, make the bet a balanced and steady income to the water company money. the same odds the same results occur, so some people say is the embodiment of law; if there are different results, Some people say that gambling companies find the law in order to avoid being deliberate. are nonsense. recommended not to see what the results of the same odds, it will only give you misleading. For example, I cited the two for a front Ball / Qiuban Handicap, their difference is one is one is confused disk drive power, if any historical analysis of the same odds to different times in different leagues in different team strength, with the disregard the changing circumstances that have What are the differences?
IV. Summary.
for the Handicap, the first step we need to do is to analyze the strength of this is to confuse or disk drive.
second step, the strength of the plate, we need to learn about making the Analysis of the relationship between the probability of the outcome level, as his basic conclusion of a bet; to confuse plate, we're going to understand the intention of making, imagine the mentality of investors, will cause more heat over there, in order to determine the result is the opposite of heat side.
third step, the observed changes in Handicap, Handicap determine there is no exchange of situation, that becomes the strength to guard against disk drive to confuse, power disk drive becomes confused. combined for analysis. < br>
Zhang Lu Zhang Lu index Index: state of two recent games, standings, home and away standings, poor data points calculated a value, the more this value approaches 0, indicating that the two sides more balanced strength, strong positive that the home team, visiting team strong negative note, the digital Note the greater the greater the gap between the two teams.
abnormal abnormal difference between index index
principle: We all know the present study there are many ways football Shengping Fu, odds analysis, analysis of various odds and water level other.
various methods has its own characteristics, but because of their isolation so there are some drawbacks, often due to the induced plate makers, plate and other practices make the change away from the right to judge the results, and study it very complicated. anomaly differences index and the return on pay rates in Europe and Australia between water level changes Handicap plate comprehensive mathematical calculations, to get a more intuitive and simple numerical reflection. is that it can directly reflect the odds of the company or malicious changes by inducing disk drive are hidden Results true. If the odds is a banana, an exception is still a difference in index of bananas, just finished pulling the skin.
odds odds
commonly referred to, is the European gaming companies out of the win , flat, negative odds, customarily called the European lose, in fact, the gaming companies in Asia generally are in the traditional Asian Handicap, the same out of this win, flat, negative odds, betting companies in Asia and words, it is customary for such odds is called the standard offer. as is used in domestic football lottery wins, flat, negative guessing way, so the odds (or the standard tray) of reference and guiding significance to Asia so far Handicap are much more direct, more explicit.
Asian Handicap Handicap
's get the ball and the water level changes to a greater extent is reflected by the note after betting companies in the top and bottom plate in order to balance the amount taken by injection guide the orientation, whether it is making the Macau gaming or Indonesia, are generally reluctant to participate in direct punters to gamble, more Trader Trader means or through the upper and lower water level to balance the amount of disk betting. So the water level changes, especially when the level spot a certain extent, the changes do not directly reflect the outcome of betting companies to determine for the game, but gaming companies reflects the bottom plate by injection of cold and heat. the so-called hot spot, when to die in often do not become the absolute truth. Index

Kelly can be seen, the odds to do the main variables and other data are closely related, largely based its data are the basis of his changes, and Kelly's index and can say that this is the The final calculation of the data in the balance of results, because as he is to go through each company multiplied by the average probability of the corresponding odds to reflect the company obtained a result of the data play a specific Peifu indicators. can be said that from the market, the Kelly family will always be different and only the index of large companies such as SSP, William Hill, the big companies can do so on its index of convergence in the loss ratio Kelly
. By Kelly on the market index for each point and the convergence point between judgments we can usually find a game trend, but also because Kelly index changes, that Kelly is able to index the data reflect the true gaming company trends and capital flows sports betting.
Kelly primary role is to index response to a ball game as the economic market risk of each company profits and paying the difference to do with. here is to analyze each company to play in the match results of an index of the similarities and differences expressed in degree of Kelly. In general, the higher the level of acceptance options, play may be the greater risk of betting the company for payments exists greater. The greater the difference between the options, the play may be smaller. for the safety point of betting the company profitable.

Betfair Betfair is not a market maker, but the betting exchanges. It is not itself note, just as the intermediary, to promote trading between different clients, that each transaction and the buyer is making its customers, and the winner will be made a party to extract only a small percentage as profit commission. In other words, each transaction Shuiyingshuishu not affect Betfair's business, so it does not mind the detailed transaction information publicly.
Results of a match as a predictor of analysis tools and reference. However, it can not be directly linked with the Results, hot off the defeat upset win is common. to improve the odds, we have to carefully study the history of each team track record, comparative analysis and field records to identify the similarities and differences among the decision again. For example a stable performance of the team, Cold Heat win the chance of negative natural high; there are some teams are often unpopular Results. Moreover the trend is to look at the data, never changing perspective unusual mystery.
in the West, there are three authoritative prediction method is widely used to predict the results of football matches Shengping Fu, many European companies are betting the three prediction methods based on the established mathematical model to determine what kind of out of the initial index. Times, published in this to friends in the outcome of the lottery to enjoy more fun in color quiz.
one prediction method
Arrow physicist from the United States founded by Dr. Aroad Elo, Elo, Dr. apply these methods to predict the earliest Chess The results of the competition. Elo forecasting model is by studying the home and away team's points before the game to predict the outcome of the situation, regression equation:
the possibility of winning home team = 44.8% + (0.53% multiplied by two Team points difference); away the possibility of the team win = 24.5% + (0.39% multiplied by the difference between two points).
II scoring rate prediction method
1990, the David. Jackson and KR Mo She Siji international gaming conference in the published paper, Principle:
1. When the entries of both the difference between the average scoring rate of 0.30 (excluding 0.30) above, the average team wins high goals;
2. When the entries of both the average scoring rate a difference of more than 0.10 to 0.30 (with 0.30), if the home team's average score is high, then the home team win;
3. When the entries of both the difference between the average scoring rate to more than 0.10 0.30 (with 0.30), if the home team's average score was lower than the average away team scoring rate, the home team wins or flat;
4. When the entries of both the difference between the average scoring rate 0.10 (with 0.10) below, the home team wins or flat.
three, six prediction method
this prediction was first made available to players in the British newspaper the simple prediction method:
1. When the two teams last 6 games on the match points difference is greater than or equal to 6, the high points last 6 games the team wins;
2. When the game field integral difference between the two teams last 6 to 5, if the home team High points the last 6 games, the home team win; if the home team points last 6 games is low, then the home team wins or flat;
3. When two teams match points difference last 6 games 2-4 , the high points last 6 games the team wins.
4. When the two teams last 6 games on the match points difference is 1 or 0, then the home team wins or flat.